February 10, 2010 – MMO Fallout

World of Warcraft Has Peaked: Still Has 11.5 Million Subscribers

ah010810blizzard — Welcome to the tip of the mountain.

The celebration at the end of Return of the Jedi likely can’t compare to the fanfare being celebrated by practically every gamer who has ever uttered the phrase “World of Warcraft sucks.” Earlier today we learned from the big boss man himself, Blizzard CEO Mike Morhaime, that World of Warcraft has been stagnant for two years: Keeping stable at the 11.5 million mark. According to Morhaime, who was responding to an investor’s call, a third of new players quit before level ten I need to go back to remedial math. It was one third of players stay after level 10, not the other way around. Two thirds quit by level 10.

World of Warcraft has been stuck in a power struggle between two government agencies fighting for authority over the games market in China, where the game and half of the worldwide subscribers have been stuck in a period of limbo between online, offline, and NetEase occasionally losing the ability to sign up new customers. Earlier this week, Netease was forced to suspend registrations for a week after it was found that they are still not operating World of Warcraft with a license.

Despite issues in China, what this boils down to in many gamers is the mythical peak many have spoken of for years: The day World of Warcraft stopped growing. For those of you keeping track, this peak actually happened two years ago, December 2008, when Blizzard first reported 11.5 million subscribers.

I don’t think I need to remind the Blizzard Trolls out there that stagnant or not, Blizzard still has 11.5 million subscribers. Let’s not try and count the chickens before they’ve evolved from primordial soup, Blizzard could lose millions of their customers tonight and still have more paying customers than a great portion of the other big name MMOs in the market, combined.

Considering World of Warcraft, and each of its expansions, has dominated the PC market for five years running, it seems reasonable to chalk this up to the ratio of people who have not purchased WoW is going down to those who have purchased WoW. I myself have a copy of World of Warcraft and the Burning Crusade in my PC library (I have 68 hours clocked in on Xfire). Essentially, we’ve reached the point where the number of people coming in is matching or just barely exceeding the number of people leaving.

Blizzard is expecting a spike in returning users when Cataclysm releases, but one truth holds firm: World of Warcraft will begin the decline one day. It may not be this year, it may not even be the next two years, but it will decline. The only thing that can kill WoW is WoW itself, or another Blizzard MMO. For the moment, however, Blizzard is doing just fine for themselves, and unlike Arthas this king will not be going anywhere any time soon. So put the noise-maker away, World of Warcraft may be old enough in MMO terms to start having its midlife crisis and run around town naked, but it can still make you squeal like a pig with one hand tied behind its back.

Cryptic Studios Listens: Expansion and CO's Future

gustav — Gustav chooses to murder his dissenters.

Cryptic wants to change. They want to stop being the company known for poor communication with its players, and they want to stop this cycle of rushing patches untested. The employees are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore!

Bill Roper and the team had a lot to say in the State of the Game today, and made a lot of promises of rehabilitation. First, Cryptic is taking the first step: Acknowledgement. In the SOTG, they talk about the recent bugs appearing due to a recent change in the game’s coding in the kitchen sink patch. Furthermore, Cryptic is readily admitting that there was not enough playtesting done in both internal QA and through the test server, in order to rush the patch out. Taking the blame is great, but what is Cryptic really doing to improve conditions?

Foremost, Cryptic is looking towards improving communications between developers and players. The communication begins with bi-weekly question and answer sessions, followed by an ongoing blog by the Game Masters, detailing plans for the game. Monthly developer chats will take place in Cryptic’s IRC channel, and the State of the Game will now be released bi-weekly. An overhaul of the Champions Online website will bring in more fan screenshots, fan art, and ways to stalk your favorite developer.

Boy do I have egg on my face, and that egg is not part of Denny’s free Grand Slam. I’ve often said that although Cryptic has communication issues on the little things (timer resets, feedback, etc), they generally get the picture when an issue becomes big enough. When Daeke announced that the next expansion, Vibora Bay, would be a paid mission pack, the community went, in all fairness, completely ape-poop.

Well Cryptic fans may rejoice, and Cryptic trolls may move on to their next talking point, because Cryptic has an announcement to make. After wading his way through the legion of hate mail, “I quit” emails, and piled on (actually constructive) feedback, Bill Roper and the team have decided to make Vibora Bay, now known as Champions online: Revelation, free to all players.

Revelation is expected mid-March, with more information on the way. All we know currently is that the expansion is a “full fledged expansion pack,” and will feature a storyline full of heroes, villains, new areas, powers, and gameplay mechanics, and maybe even a love interest for your hero (Just kidding).

If Cryptic can stick to this twelve step program, there are good things in Champions Online’s future.