Q3 2012 – MMO Fallout

The third quarter results are in for Funcom, and the news is a mix. The Secret World has launched and revenues for the third quarter are 10,963 TUSD, more than double for the same quarter in 2011 and far higher than in the second quarter of this year. Unfortunately due to the poor launch of The Secret World in July, new estimates show that the company may not achieve a positive cash flow in 2013. All of Funcom’s titles that have launched are in a position of bringing in a positive cash flow, while development continues for Funcom’s Lego Minifigures MMO, as well as Project A revealed previously and in conceptual stages. The Lego MMO is set for a 2014 launch.

Now for some juicy speculation. Funcom stated that 30-40% of The Secret World’s income is from the cash shop. Since The Secret World pulled in $1.1 million USD in October, and we’ll go the low route and say 70% is from subscriptions and they are all people paying the $15 a month. That leaves Funcom with approximately fifty one thousand subscribers for The Secret World in October. This number is either great or terrible, depending on your perspective. Hopefully it is more than enough to keep the MMO going.

Funcom has retained ABG Sundal Collier and GP Bullhound, leading some to believe that the development studio is on the verge of selling itself off to the highest bidder.

The folks at Arenanet and Team Bloodlust must be breaking open the champagne today, as NCSoft’s financial statements for the third quarter of 2012 reveal that Guild Wars 2 and Blade & Soul aren’t just bringing home the bacon, they are weaving it and frying it to perfection. Guild Wars 2 launched strong in the United States and Europe, while Blade & Soul ripped up the carpeting in Korea. Both games contributed to a massive 50% year over year gain in profits for NCSoft, pulling the developer up from its operating loss from last quarter that saw heavy corporate restructuring and the cancellation of City of Heroes. Both titles should receive a bump in revenue, as Guild Wars 2’s sales do not include Asia, and Blade & Soul has not launched in the West.

On the other hand, every rose has its thorn. As you have likely noticed, both Guild Wars and City of Heroes are no longer listed. Aion continued its free fall in sales while Lineage II continues its considerably slower downturn. The bump that Lineage received in the second quarter is clearly over and done with, as sales fell to below the fourth quarter sales trough in 2011.