2010, to me, was a bit like entering a shaved watermelon contest. I love watermelon, and I enjoy contests, and there isn’t much I won’t do for the promise of a trophy and perhaps a gift certificate to Denny’s. On the other hand, a trophy for “best shaved watermelon” isn’t exactly something I would use to start a conversation, and I would have my reserves of putting said trophy up on the mantelpiece, allowing it to share room with my many shuttered MMO boxes.
Last year, I wrote up my MMO Turing Test, which is supposed to be a dividing line between successful and unsuccessful MMOs. I have a better article coming up, but after I wrote up that article I started adding in the birthdays of MMOs to the calendar, that are over five years old. It is inspiring to see the amount of pink that covers the calendar page, titles turning eight, nine, ten years old, we tend to forget the older titles and focus on the younger games that die far too early into their lifespan. Rather than look at the Asheron’s Calls of the genre, we see the Asheron’s Call 2, the title that didn’t quite make it to pasture.
I am the first to admit my mistakes, and generally the first to gloat when I am right, so here are my predictions from last year’s article: 2010: The Blue Moon Year, and what went right and wrong.
- Is Ultima Online 2 coming out? Not likely, at least not for now. There hasn’t been much since 2009 when Calvin Crowner gave a passing hint at Ultima Online 2 being in development, and we haven’t heard much since then. Therefore, this question is still open.
- Is Sony working on a Star Wars MMO? Yes, and it launched. There were rumors back in 2009 that Sony was working on a casual Star Wars MMO, and it turns out that not only was the title in development, but it also launched. Star Wars: The Clone Wars Adventures launched in 2010 to the fanfaire of children everywhere.
- Will Stargate Worlds ever release? This is an easy no. Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment has lost the licensing to the Stargate property, meaning that any chance of the company coming back from its Chapter 11 bankruptcy is pretty much moot, as they have nothing to work with. Stargate Resistance is also shutting down early 2011.
- Who Will Win the Superhero Clash? Quick answer? Nobody. I guess you could claim that Champions Online going free to play while City of Heroes remains subscription based is a point of victory to NCsoft, however neither title has truly knocked the other out of the market. I guess when DC Universe Online launches next year, we may see something more interesting come out of this fight.
- Sony remains an MMO Behemoth: No questions there. Next year, Sony plans on launching The Agency, DC Universe Online, Planetside Next, with Everquest Next in development for some unknown time. With our confirmed titles, Sony will have eleven MMOs operating side-by-side by the end of 2011.
- Will we ever see a new 360 MMO? No. With how much blocking Microsoft does, it’s probably best to not pick up an Xbox360 if you’re doing so to buy Final Fantasy XIV, virtually the only title that still has optimism for a release on the console.
- Who is making the Fallout MMO? I am. I kid, Interplay made a huge advancement against Bethesda and is currently working on the Fallout MMO.
- Jagex’s New MMO: It isn’t coming out, at least not yet. Last year, Jagex said 2010 for Stellar Dawn, now the aim is 2011.
Trends in 2010?
- Achievements: Call them what you want: tasks, achievements, deeds, goals, etc, if you’re killing 500 of a certain mob, you are grinding achievements. The achievement system as a whole is an evolving concept, and 2011 will no doubt bring more improvements to the old grind.
- Cross-Server: This one disappointed me most about 2010. I assumed that more companies would be looking into battleground style systems that worked across realms/servers, and no one returned my call.
- Returning the Classics: Not a major trend, but certainly an improvement. Everquest sees the return of a time-locked progression server, where players start out in classic Everquest 1999-edition, and move onward as each expansion unlocks after a set period of time. Over on the EA front, Ultima Online has shown quite a bit of interest in opening up a classic shard, to emulate the pre-Trammel (possibly) version of Ultima with all of its non-consensual PVP glory.
- Going Free To Play: You may offer your tribute to Turbine at the local wishing well. Now that Dungeons and Dragons Online has completely revolutionized the reaction to going free to play, I don’t think anyone was surprised by the following that the movement has attained, especially given that said movement was not initiated by something Blizzard did. This year we’ve seen the transitions of Alganon, Everquest II, Pirates of the Burning Sea, with more titles past and future hitting the bricks and taking a nosedive for the sake of boosting their community. Next year, Champions Online goes free to play, with the possibility of Star Trek Online following. Oddly enough, two of the MMOs everyone expected to go free to play (Age of Conan and Warhammer Online) were the two that felt the need, over the course of this year, to remind us that they are not going free to play.
- Price Drops: Well color me wrong on this. There have been a large number of editorials on how developers shouldn’t release a non-AAA item and expect AAA subscription costs, but overall the reaction to such ideas has been nil, or at least not responsive enough to garner any attraction. We do understand why, however. For a company to lower its subscription to $10 under $15, they have to pull in a 33% increase just to stay even with what they had before, and most companies are not willing to make such a risky move.
- Unlimited Trials: I’m marking this one down as a success because the free to play systems above are really not much more than a heartily expanded unlimited trial. Much like New Coke, the trend appears to go toward launching a game with a subscription, then offering a trial, before cutting the subscription down to a system of perks and exclusive content, and launching the rest of the game as free.
- Bill Roper Will Still Be Hated: He is also gone, for now. Earlier this year, back in August, Bill Roper left Cryptic Studios to pursue plans that have not yet been announced to the public. There has no doubt been a shift in Cryptic’s mission statement, such as a promise of no longer using the Cryptic store as a crutch in Star Trek Online, and placing both of Cryptic’s MMOs into the free to play arena (next year). Either way, wherever Bill Roper goes, no doubt he will have his frothing mouthed haters there to call him a fraud.
- MMOs Not Named World of Warcraft: They came, they saw, they went free to play, and they crashed. 2010 saw the deaths of seven major MMOs, with even more smaller titles that couldn’t stand the heat.
MMO Fallout 