It’s All About Retention Rate

Aion launches alongside the delayed Fallen Earth come September 22nd, and those of you who have watched sales figures over the past few months will have seen Aion topping the charts for the PC market, both retail and digital through Steam and Direct 2 Drive. Aion preorders have gone so well, that NCSoft has proudly boasted the latest mark of over 300,000 preorders for the upcoming MMORPG. NCsoft is looking to make Aion not just localized, but going forward and culturalising the title for Western markets, changing various mechanics in the game to suit a different play style and expectation.

But for the fact that Aion supporters are using these new statistics to forward the notion that Aion will be a “wow killer,” preorder figures mean practically nothing when it comes to the overall success of an MMO, as much as I hate to kill the Aion buzz. Take, for example, Funcom’s Age of Conan. Before Age of Conan launched, the title sold out on its 111,000 collector’s editions, as well as announcing that they would ship 700,000 copies on day one, yet still not be able to fulfill every preorder. Warhammer Online, on the other hand, shipped 1.5 million copies in preparation for launch day.

I mention Warhammer Online and Age of Conan because, despite setting record numbers for preorders, both titles lost a lot of accounts during, and after the free month that came with the title. What sets MMOs apart from other genres in terms of success is that an FPS like Halo 3 can determine its success on how many people bought the title. After that, very few care if they continue playing. With an MMO, on the other hand, you cannot determine success until one or two months after the game has shipped, when the one month free time is ending and players are forced to choose whether or not to renew their accounts.

While preorders give a developer that extra boost of currency, the company is in it for the long run, and as such must base their success off of subscribers, rather than simply box orders. For every MMO that is released, the first month is always a cool down period, making the time period a poor indication of the game’s lasting value and popularity.

Aion has a head start, with a great following in Asia. What is yet to be seen, is whether the title will do as well in the West as it has in the East.