2010: The Blue Moon Year

We enter January as 2009 comes to a close, we look at the year before us, and the year ahead, and remember that life goes on, no matter what happens in the present. I’ve dubbed 2010 the blue moon year because it has the pleasure of beginning with a blue moon, an event that won’t be occurring on New Year’s Eve for a long time to come.

I’m going slightly out of character with this article, if anything just to be the one time a year I get to be a jerk and pick on the same companies I spend the other 364 days vying for the attention of (Thank you Tork, Hasbro, Aventurine, Cryptic). This is a comprehensive list of some questions I have going into the new year, that I hope to get answered by this time next year.

Upcoming Titles

1. Is Ultima Online 2 coming out? Calvin Crowner gave us a sampler back in September when he mentioned Ultima Online 2 in passing, and how Electronic Arts is giving the franchise a serious look. Hopefully he will have more to say in 2010.
2. Is Sony working on a Star Wars MMO? Tentonhammer reported on a rumor that Sony was working on a casual MMO based on the Star Wars Universe.
3. Will Stargate Worlds ever release? This has been on my mind for years. The MMOgul ponzi scheme aside, I’m guessing 2010 will bring us three stories on Stargate Worlds getting funding, another lawsuit, and an eventual shutdown following a possible investigation. The title has been shelved, for the time being, in order to release Stargate Resistance, and Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment was willing to admit that they never had the funds to create the game in the first place.
4. Who Will Win the Superhero Clash?: City of Heroes has six years of life to leg on, with Champions Online turning one year old this September. DC Universe Online is launching this year and Marvel Universe Online may make it out the door by the time the world ends in 2012. Considering Sony will have two superhero MMOs running side by side, what does this mean for City of Heroes? CoH has an expansion (Going Rogue, if you will) coming out, so there are no plans to shut the MMO down for the forseeable future.
5. Sony remains an MMO Behemoth: Sony is running or developing more MMOs than Blizzard, CCP, Acclaim, Cryptic, and Funcom put together. With Everquest Next, The Agency, DC Universe, and Planetside 2 in the works, Sony will continue its name as a formidable force in all genres of the MMO industry.
6. Will we ever see a new 360 MMO? Champions Online and Age of Conan are just two titles slated to release on the Xbox360, and we learned earlier this year that it is Microsoft’s doing that is delaying these titles. With the cancellation of the planned BBC streaming, alongside another year of no MMOs on the 360, Microsoft continues to make an ass of itself in regards to its live service.
7. Will we ever see a decent launch? Between server stability (Fallen Earth), being able to buy the game (Darkfall), overpopulation (Aion), underpopulation (Alganon), drastic alterations (Champions Online), and more, yet another year passes with the same old concept: If you are not a patient person, it isn’t in your best interest to  join an MMO in the first two months.
8. Who is making the Fallout MMO? With the ongoing lawsuit between Bethesda and Interplay, this fight could go on for years.
9. Jagex’s New MMO: We’ve already seen Mechscape crash and burn, and although Mark Gerhard promised Stellar Dawn for 2010, former CEO Geoff Iddison also once claimed that Mechscape was, for all intense and purpose, finished.

Current Titles

1. Which MMO will be next to die? My guess is Dungeon Runners and Metaplace. I have no idea why, but you just watch.
2. The Great Shutdown: 2009 was one of the worst years so far for MMOs, and 2010 is looking to be just as bad. Not even two weeks into 2010, we will have seen two MMOs already shut down. This past year was a bad economy for MMOs, and 2010 will see the fallout from 2009’s economy, as the effects of decreased subscribers and massive layoffs start hitting developers hard.
3. Will Warhammer Online adopt a f2p model? At this point, Warhammer Online is technically a freemium title, what with tier 1 (up to level 10) being free to play without time limits. At the current rate of server mergers, Warhammer is going to be in serious trouble by the end of this year.
4. How about Age of Conan? Ea Games strikes me as more likely to shut down a title instead of moving it to free to play, but Funcom already has partially free to play Anarchy Online, so such a theory isn’t too far of a stretch. During December, Fileplanet Subscribers could sign up to Age of Conan and get the original game, minus some chat and trade, for free. It is possible that this may be a testing phase for Funcom to dip their toes in the water with the expansion coming up in 2010, but we’ll be watching to see if this project expands.

Trends in 2010

1. Achievements: Microsoft made it mainstream with the xbox360, Lord of the Rings Online made it popular in MMOs, and Blizzard took it to a whole new level. Warhammer Online introduced the Tome of Knowledge. Everquest added them in, Champions Online has perks and Steam achievements, and more companies are jumping on the bandwagon. You’re bound to see more MMOs introducing achievements in 2010, offering everything from perks to points, vanity pets and new pieces of clothing, to banners to show off to your friends.
2. Cross-Server: One of the best breakthroughs of 2009. In games such as WoW and Everquest 2, and more to come. No longer will players be held by the restraints of separate servers. Be it instancing, grouping, raiding, and more, servers are finding more ways to bring players together. Removing the server barrier resolves what most MMOs have an issue with when they get older: The lower level areas are empty.
3. Returning to the Classics: MMOs are naturally never finished, always changing, and always updating, and the end result is a long history that can never be truly re-experienced. Jagex did this with the temporary reopening of Runescape Classic, that has been closed to the public since 2005. Everquest did it in the form of a man who transforms you into a level 50 hero from back in the day, with what was appropriate gear for the time, so you can party like it’s 1999.
4. Going free to play: When Dungeons and Dragons Online went free to play, we speculated as to whether or not the game would draw in more subscribers, or if the current subscribers would just swap over to the free version. Lo and behold, Turbine later announced that the game had drawn in 40% more subscribers, and the public reaction was so great that they would be adding another server. I think we may see several MMOs go free to play in 2010, including (but not limited to): Age of Conan, Warhammer Online, and more.
5. Price Drops: Going free to play means a substantial loss in revenue to the developer, depending on how many people return to the game to play the ad-supported, cash-shop supported, or otherwise funded game. In Runescape, free players make up approximately six of the seven million players, yet contribute only 7% of the game’s yearly income through advertisement. That being said, it is in the best interest of some MMOs to bring their prices down, especially when competing at similar prices to World of Warcraft (as one commenter pointed out)
6. Unlimited Trials: Warhammer Online did it, Age of Conan did it, and now Champions Online is doing it. More developers are realizing that the 15-day trial just doesn’t cut it anymore. Taking a small portion of the game and making it free forever is just the bump these titles need to not only grab potential subscribers, but keep them coming back for more. Sure you get 30 days with each game purchase, but who wants to buy a game they know very little about? Here’s hoping the first ten levels of Lord of the Rings Online go unlimited trial.
7. Bill Roper will still be hated: Hopefully William won’t take a tire iron to my cranium if he reads this, but in all likelihood his name will still be one that draws rage from MMOers. For those of you not aware, Bill Roper was one of the big names behind the Warcraft, Starcraft, and Diablo series over at Blizzard. Following his time at Blizzard, he moved on to become the CEO of Flagship Studios, who released the poorly received and later shut down, Hellgate London (That still receives controversy over the lifetime subscription program). Now with Cryptic and working on the released Champions Online and upcoming Star Trek Online, it is likely Roper will remain in the circle with names such as Jack Thompson whose mention incites rage in the gamer base.
8. MMOs not named World of Warcraft: They will exist, and likely will get more coverage here on MMO Fallout than Blizzard does.